Threats to power sector and preventive measures

The forecast of the international weather watch community for selected parts of Asia is light to heavy rain. For Manila, Philippines and major cities like Cebu, Davao, other parts of the Southeast Asian country, varying forecasts of Tuesday-to-Friday (August 5-8) continuous rains and Wednesday-to-Friday (August 6-8).

PAGASA predicts gale force winds during the same periods mentioned above.

It is inevitable that this will impact once more upon power facilities. If countermeasures are still not being undertaken to buffer the effect of heavy rain and gale force winds brought about by Typhoon Halong (Philippine code Jose), the public may once again anticipate possible power outages in selected areas in the country.

While media reports that the typhoon has weakened over time, it must be noted that storms are invariably finicky and can regain strength at any time. On numerous occasions, typhoons that made landfall in the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) and exited after some time, gather greater momentum and returns for another landfall in the PAR.

As the forecasts go, there is more rain than powerful, destructive winds that indubitably are the cause of storm surges.

As earlier cautioned on July 13, 2014, necessary steps must be taken to forestall sustaining great but unnecessary damage to power facilities. Thus it is most strongly suggested that, despite the burden of cost, retirable and extremely depreciated installations need to be condemned and replaced. Retrofits and repairs have to be conducted, more so now than ever before.

More efficient and more effective monitoring systems have to be put in place to pinpoint at once all kinds of non-regular performance of components of the distribution system.

Needless to say, the downtime and the cost to the power supplier but most of all the public at large becomes too enormous to bear when stopgaps that are doable are not put in place while there are occasions to do so.

Furthermore, appropriate new technologies for safeguarding the distribution process from tripping or sustaining enormous damage that will surely entail costly repair and rebuilding, ought to be acquired or harnessed to their fullest. More often than not, new methods and technologies form part of the set of stop gaps that power service providers must have to have better staying power.

It is possible that Meralco did not have good pro-active measures, a keenness to acquire or harness new technologies and techniques because it sank into the quagmire of debts amounting to staggering amounts like hundreds of millions to billions of US Dollars. As a result, Meralco today, is 51% owned by PLDT that is run by Mr. Manuel V. Pangilinan that in turn is taking orders from Indonesian and Malaysian investors (Salim Group) that holds the bigger stake in PLDT.

The irony is that, both PLDT and Meralco, are engaged in public services that ideally, should never be in the hands of foreigners as much as humanly possible.

Any enterprise in the power sector that will suffer the same fate as that of the Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant (of Tokyo Electric Power Co.) knowing that pro-active measures could have been taken in advance, would be foolish to absorb losses that could really be avoided in the first place. If the public sector is vigilant, such utility corporations should be stripped of their license and permit to operate electric power distribution services and the opportunity needs to be handed over to more competent and qualified service providers.

A collage of images of damaged power utility facilities alone should give a hint as to the urgency of undertaking advanced planning and early countermeasures, particularly in these times of worsening calamities.

July 15-18, 2014 Philippines

Around the rest of the country and in South China (lowermost photo), the impact of Glenda on installations was staggering. (Photo credits: ANC - Yahoo; AvaxNews - Adrian Ayalin; Philippine Daily Inquirer; Straits Times) 

July 19, 2014

Posted under themes:

damage, installations, typhoon #Jose, #Halong, #power utilities, #pro-active
#disaster #Philippines, #Early Countermeasures

Win the 2016 elections

In Indonesia  as in many countries around the world, the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) undertakes indepth studies about political campaigns. One significant work of NDI is the Political Campaign Planning Manual shown below (click the image below to download pdf document.)

NDI is based at 455 Massachusetts Ave, NW, 8th Floor, Washington, DC 20001-2621. It has field offices in many countries around the world. See the list of field offices here.

In the Philippines, a number of centers and institutes - both private and public involve themselves in the study of political campaigns and winning in elections.

Due to the highly partisan as well as feudal-patronage system-based politics and political campaigns in the Philippines, the more cerebral and similarly inclined approaches to drawing voters often does not apply in this country.

However, even given the same kind of structure in such countries as Malaysia, Indonesia and many other Asian countries, technologies and techniques in campaigns that do away with unsightly practices like employing guns, goons and gold also have a chance of delivering votes as evidenced by the victory of many unknowns in the stable of aspirants to significant political posts from Councilor, Congressman, Mayor, Vice Mayor, Vice Governor, Governor, among others proves that honest-to-goodness campaigns can also successfully make candidates win.

There is hope that Philippine elections will become better and that with improved performance on the part of the country's security and law enforcement sector, the regulatory agencies and other quarters that help keep the level of vigilance, peace and stability during poll time high, many desirable candidates will attain to positions where they can pursue policies and true reforms in the country.

It is hoped that this will also be true for all the other neighboring states in Asia, and those in Africa, Europe-Eurasia and the Americas, etc.

Pollmodernization.org invites political aspirants for Philippine 2016 and future elections to work with us and ensure ascension - installation to public office.

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Power facilities downed by Glenda threatened by future storms

It has been forewarned on July 13, 2014 that power utility installations will be among the physical facilities that will sustain the most damage from the tropical storm / typhoon #Rammasun or #Glenda. This kind of phenomenon will keep repeating itself over and over with the advent of more intense weather and climate disturbances in this new millennium.

Shown below is the portrait of damaged power utility facilities inside BF Homes Parañaque and Las Piñas alone:

July 17, 2014

In areas around the rest of the country and in South China (lowermost photo), the impact of Glenda on installations was staggering. (Photo credits: ANC - Yahoo; AvaxNews - Adrian Ayalin; Philippine Daily Inquirer; Straits Times; Xinhua News

July 15-18, 2014

July 19, 2014

Posted under themes:

#Rammasun  #typhoon  #Glenda  #Philippines

Philippines: Need for brief moment of silence, full attention to power crisis

A simple time of silence and attentiveness is needed. For just a little while, stop the desperate fibbing about DAP, PDAF, Destroy Jinggoy-Estrada-Enrile-Binay, et al.

Let's for a brief moment focus on a potential flashpoint. The power situation in Luzon and nearby areas is facing a possible threat from incoming tropical storm Rammasun. With the entry of the storm months, any small or major damage might engender greater numbers of power shortages in Luzon. Earlier, during the previous month, it was reported by Manila Times that the worsening power problems will cause severe crisis over the next two years. (Read the news item here.)

As early as 1990, it was already admonished by the Department of National Defense that the Philippines get into the act of laying the infrastructure for surplus power supply for the next twenty five years (from 1990 up to 2015). This suggestion was not heeded. While the intention of succeeding regime after that of Mrs. Corazon Aquino was possibly noble, the deregulation of the power sector did nothing to cure the problem of extreme shortfall in the national requirement for power.

Photo credit: extremetech.com

Photo credit: imageshack

We cannot overstate the potential impact of incoming Tropical Storm Rammasun (local code name Bagyo Glenda). However, with its path going through areas where above ground power transmission lines can possibly be hit by its now strengthening winds, there is no doubt that a number of circuit suspension towers will topple at the height of the storm.

If Rammasun itself does not completely break down major portions of Central and Southern Luzon's suspension towers and sever a large number of electric transmission lines, forthcoming typhoons and even more minor tropical storms can do the job.

A large number of preventive activities need to be put in place. During the storm it will be absolutely hazardous to keep live power lines intact just to avoid transmission from tripping. The time to undertake pro-active measures is now, before the strong winds come. And following the exit of Rammasun or Glenda, more pro-active measures can then be taken - considering lessons learned from the passage of the storm.

These however must necessitate that serious attention be given to such kind of effort, beyond the present panicked and frenetic, super desperate moves to throw mud at each other between the group of Philippine president Mr. Aquino and his critics, as well as the Philippine Supreme Court that recently outlawed a fund use scheme called Development Acceleration Program.

In most developed, as well as in many developing countries, storm or typhoon buffers are installed to protect and safeguard farms and other agriculture livelihood centers.

Such storm buffers do not prevent total destruction of crops but these greatly minimize the losses from the havoc wreaked by the calamity.

For keeping as many power transmission lines and suspension towers safe, such buffers can be installed even for short-term purposes. In this case, prior to the landfall of Rammasun (Glenda), some safety measures can be installed. At the very least, lesser damage can be expected from the storm in case Rammasun (Glenda) will develop fast into a super typhoon.

As of this time, while there are a large number of power plant operations in Luzon are bogged down, if a substantial portion of the grid will suffer damage, the potential for burgeoning power outages will be great.

Rammasun is expected to hit the Philippine area of responsibility in the next 48 hours. For the love of God, stop bickering just for a short while and do something about this problem. If the Philippine government fails to listen to suggestions that could increase chances of preventing critical power outages in Luzon, then it must be the most inutile regime this country ever had in the entire history of this nation.

Photo credit: US NOAA

Photo credits: weather.com

Photo credit: Accuweather

Update 1 Video Credit: westernpacificweather.com

Update 2 Photo - Video Credit: westernpacificweather.com

Related articles:

GMA- Storm signals in various areas of RP as Glenda nears

Posted under theme: #Glenda #Rammasun #power crisis #government corruption

Natural Prize

The previously unheard-of extraordinarily large natural blister pearls Pearl of the Queen of Tribal Nations that weighs 9 kilograms and the Pearl of the Brown Emperor weighing more or less 14 kilograms. There are also several other natural pearls of nearly the same weight but these are by far the biggest known in the whole world. Both natural blister pearls came from the south west portion of the Philippine Islands and may have grown to their present size for no less than a hundred years. The two largest natural blister pearls are exquisite in form and beauty. Photographs of the pearls are shown below:

Pearl of the Tribes' Queen

Weighs 9 kilograms

Pearl of the Brown Emperor

Weighs 14 kilograms

The Global Geohazard System

Environmental Risks, Forecasting
 View in pdf form or download file from here

Supersites (eathquake sites) of the world scientific community has a interactive map showing the areas where big earthquakes are predicted to happen. Click the image to visit Supersites:

The forecast of members of the scientific community that massive casualties will be experienced in the next big disaster that will hit the Philippines is accurate.

One of the greatest concerns is that the target of the next big one is the Philippines national capital region: Metropolitan Manila.

With a nighttime population of more than 12 million, in daytime Metro Manila has a population volume of nearly 20 million or higher during peak seasons.

Metro Manila is also home to many international agency headquarters such as the Asian Development Bank and all the home offices of foreign embassies are located in the capital region.

Too many factors can account for the exactitude and correctness of the prediction of massive casualties – not the least amongst them, the lack of state-of-the-art data and information ferreting equipment. Scientific expertise and knowhow in the use of new technology for tidal wave, weather, seismic event, volcanic eruption forecasting is not necessarily lacking in the Philippines.

However, it must be conceded that the Philippines does not have enough or adequate experience in handling satellite launch, management and earth observation operations.

To compound the problem ten-folds it is learned through the media, that intervention by interest groups in purveying vital data to the public about earthquake faults, the shameless impunity with which big companies are shunting regulations against building big structures on top of sites highly vulnerable to earthquake faults, also compound the danger of the Philippines suffering a large multitude of people getting killed during a big disaster incident involving the shaking of the Marikina West Valley Fault System.More > >

Forecasting future disasters with more confidence

The Philippines:

Forecasting with confidence

Self-doubting prophecy

For nearly five years ago today, it was suggested to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.

At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its Doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.

In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.

Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.

It was foreseen in this site that absolutely nothing will be allowed by Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) to block its path. As early as the morning of the raging of this typhoon that PAGASA decided to merely attribute the powerful rains and killer floods to monsoons, it was already the consensus among the advocates that started this site that many people will die by Ketsana (Ondoy). More > >